December 2025 – Knowing the Numbers In Commercial Real Estate
Office Market
The Phoenix office market has reached a tentative turning point as vacancy edges down to 16.3% following four consecutive quarters of positive absorption. Demand has improved due to increased renewals, owner-user acquisitions, and steadier in-person attendance, though overall leasing volumes remain below pre-COVID norms. With virtually no new supply—less than 600,000 SF delivered in the past year—space options in premier buildings are tightening, driving rent gains at the top end even as overall asking rents grow a modest 2.2%. Non-premium suburban product continues to struggle, and elevated sublease availability remains a headwind. Roughly 5.5 million SF of pandemic-era occupancy losses still need to be backfilled, and economic uncertainty tempers the outlook. Recovery is expected to be gradual, with improvement led by a shrinking pool of high-quality space.
| SUB-MARKET | TOTAL SF AVAILABLE | VACANCY RATE | MARKET RENT | NET ABSORPTION SF | UNDER CONSTRUCT SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL: | 194M | 16.3% | $30.20 | -85K | 921K |
| 4 & 5 STAR | 71M | 24.6% | $34.57 | 454K | 560K |
| 3 STAR | 88M | 13.3% | $29.10 | -561K | 362K |
| 1 & 2 STAR | 36M | 7.1% | $24.13 | 22K | 0 |
INDUSTRIAL MARKET
The Phoenix industrial market is showing early signs of stabilization as vacancy levels off at 12.7% following several years of heavy speculative construction that far outpaced demand. Net absorption reached 17.1 million SF over the past year, supported by logistics, retail-related, and advanced manufacturing users, yet still trails the 21.8 million SF of new deliveries. Large modern buildings remain the softest segment with vacancy near 16%, while small-bay space stays comparatively tight in the low-5% range. Rent growth has slowed sharply to 4.4% as landlords face heightened competition from abundant new supply. With 10.9 million SF still under construction—roughly half of it spec—vacancy is expected to stay elevated through 2026 before gradually improving as deliveries recede and demand continues normalizing.
| SUB-MARKET | TOTAL SF AVAILABLE | VACANCY RATE | MARKET RENT | NET ABSORPTION SF | UNDER CONSTRUCT SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL: | 500M | 12.7% | $12.93 | 2.5M | 11M |
| LOGISTICS | 371M | 14.9% | $12.19 | 777K | 11M |
| SPECIALIZED | 98M | 5.4% | $13.97 | 1.7M | 141K |
| FLEX | 31M | 9.2% | $18.75 | 71K | 174K |
MULTI-FAMILY MARKET
Phoenix’s multifamily market continues to grapple with a deep supply-demand imbalance. Vacancy has risen to 12.9% as more than 22,800 new units delivered over the past year—triple the pre-COVID norm—outpaced a strong 15,700 units of absorption. Despite resilient renter demand supported by demographics, wage gains, and high barriers to homeownership, the construction wave has pushed rent growth firmly negative at –3.4%. Concessions are widespread, especially in luxury lease-ups where six to twelve weeks free is common. Another 21,000 units remain underway, concentrating pressure in Downtown, Tempe, and the West Valley. While cooling starts suggest relief ahead in late 2026, the market must still work through a substantial inventory overhang, keeping vacancy elevated and rent performance weak in the near term.
| SUB-MARKET | TOTAL SF AVAILABLE | VACANCY RATE | MARKET RENT | NET ABSORPTION UNITS | UNDER CONSTRUCT UNITS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL: | 429K | 12.9% | $1,552 | 2,244 | 21K |
| 4 & 5 STAR | 212K | 14.3% | $1,761 | 2,148 | 17K |
| 3 STAR | 154K | 12.0% | $1,387 | 192 | 5K |
| 1 & 2 STAR | 62K | 9.9% | $1,162 | -96 | 0 |
RETAIL MARKET
Phoenix retail fundamentals remain tight despite a modest rise in availability to 4.9%, driven by recent national bankruptcies and select small-business closures. Robust population growth, rising incomes, and low unemployment continue to fuel strong tenant demand, helping the market absorb newly vacated big-box space at a steady pace. Construction remains limited, with only 2.5 million SF delivered in the past year and most of the 3.7 million SF pipeline already preleased. Rent growth has decelerated to 4.4% but still outperforms national trends, supported by healthy leasing spreads built during the post-pandemic surge. While softer economic conditions and tariff uncertainty could slow demand, the combination of restrained supply, strong demographics, and highly competitive small-shop leasing is expected to keep the retail market stable with only gradual normalization.
| SUB-MARKET | TOTAL SF AVAILABLE | VACANCY RATE | MARKET RENT | NET ABSORPTION SF | UNDER CONSTRUCT SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL: | 244M | 4.6% | $26.56 | 403K | 3.7M |
| POWER CENTER | 33M | 4.3% | $29.31 | 169K | 9K |
| NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER | 92M | 5.8% | $25.64 | 205K | 1.2M |
| GENERAL RETAIL | 88M | 3.3% | $25.68 | 23K | 1.5M |
