Sept 2025 – Knowing the Numbers In Commercial Real Estate

Phoenix’s retail market remains fundamentally tight, with a 4.7% vacancy rate despite a modest uptick in closures. Strong demographics, income growth, and low unemployment are driving healthy tenant demand. Availability rose to 5.1%—still below pre-pandemic norms—due to national brand bankruptcies and small business exits. Limited new supply, concentrated in growing suburbs, supports long-term fundamentals. Rent growth eased to 4.3% from 6.1% a year ago but remains well above national averages. While risks from tariffs and slower consumption loom, the lack of overbuilding should cushion downside impacts.